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Thursday, 18 January 2018

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  • in reply to: NOWHERE TO RUN, NOWHERE TO HIDE? #18058

    BARRY N.


    While a run on T-bills or bonds may or may not happen, at some point it is more likely than not that those rates will increase. When that happens it is also more likely than not that the whole house of cards will come crashing down, the markets will fall apart as people realize the emperor has no clothes, etc. Gold, though, might or might not become recognized as part of the new world currency order. Some believe it can’t be, since there isn’t enough of it. Others believe that it must be since without some backing by a hard asset (gold really fits the bill in all ways previously described). I am holding my gold at least until my belief that some new world currency order is arranged, or the system blows up, whichever happens first, comes true. And maybe even after that. Paul Brodsky of QBAMCO (qbamco.com) has been writing very intelligently on this subject for quite some time. Worth reading if you can find it online. Also, Richard Russell has been talking about the gold bull market for years now (I owe him greatly for this as I have followed his advice carefully.)He specifically states that gold tends to run in 18-20 year bull cycles and bear cycles. From 1980 until 2002 or so gold stagnated. However it then began its run. It has enjoyed an unprecedented rise with very few major corrections. (I recall there was one back in the early 2000’s.) This recent pullback may be a blessing, i wouldn’t be surprised. However, while many pundits are claiming that this is the end, there has almost never (NEVER) been a bull market in gold or in anything, that has not ended with a mania, and a near parabolic rise. As was the case with dot-coms in the 90’s and with house flipping in the 2000’s, when your shoe-shine boy, or parking valet is asking or telling you about the latest gold “whatever,” is probably the sign that the bull is about to run its course. I have no doubt that this will happen. When it happens is still anyone’s bet, but happen it will. The real question is not that, it is how long can you be patient with what YOU know is right? For those who can, I expect they (we) will do very well. How many people do you know who had the foresight to start buying gold in 2002-2003? I suspect when it went from 250 to 400 and then back to 300 people were pooping in their pants. Those who held are doing OK. This is one of those times. That’s why they call them the strong hands. Good luck.

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