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Bill’s Analysis and Conclusions in ‘The World Slows Down’ are entirely correct. The GDP Decline Chart is but one of several items of evidence which support his position.
But there is another crucial point which supports his thesis, which he does not make explicity, but which is,
perhaps, implicit in his thesis, and it relates to Growth.
Growth potential in some areas (e.g. knowledge,) is admittedly unlimited.
However, Growth Potential in other Areas, specifically in the area of certain key material things is quite limited.
Food producing farmland, for example, is quite limited, worldwide, and inputs of energy and fertilizer will only
go so far in increasing production. And with the world’s population increasing at 80 Million per year this
limitation is a real challenge. (And hydroponic ‘food’ is no answer–just taste it!)
Limits to agricultural productive capacity is just one example of the controlling reality which is slowing
World GDP–that reality is called ‘Carrying Capacity’– the number of individuals (of any species) which can
be supported SUSTAINABLY on any resource base. Already we are overshooting our carrying capacity beyond
its optimal level and approaching its limit (Persumably no one will argue that the earth is not finite).
Thus the rate of increase of World GDP is and will continue to decline. Throughput of “things” through
the ecological/resource system has limits
For additional information regarding carrying capacity challenges and solutions visit the websites of two
nonprofits devoted to these issues; http://www.carryingcapacity.org (for conservatives) and http://www.balance.org