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Thursday, 18 January 2018

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HENSE E.

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  • in reply to: “Buy write funds” #27378

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    I have also been watching these funds–especially the closed end versions that trade at a discount to NAV, and some of them have provided a superior combination of current income, share appreciation, and low volatility. Indeed, Jim: ETY and ETW have had gorgeous charts . . . until a recent mini-rollover. Other possibles are: CII, NFJ, JSN, and AOD. I’m especially intrigued by the ones w/ Int’l stock exposure, and ETW claims it is even “tax-managed”. I’m a bit worried about the recent chart action on many of these vehicles (which might relate to current low call option prices), but their long term track record is undeniable. Christopher, I agree that it’d be great to construct and run our own Cov-call funds, but many of us just do not have the time such a strategy requires. Cov calls portfolios do require a lot of attention as calls expire and must be sold again. If a fund is doing it cheap and doing it right (as well as selling at a NAV discount), I’m willing to give em a chance. Hense Ellis

    in reply to: Best location to deposit cash juristitioned outside of USA #27349

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    PS – Ukraine’s currency, the “Greevnah”, has gone from 8 to 10 to the dollar, in just over the past few months. In the near future, will the dollar drop that fast against the currencies of China, Canada, etc, and against gold?

    in reply to: Best location to deposit cash juristitioned outside of USA #27348

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    How about:

    In gold, under a Swiss airport? Or in gold via the Sprott PHYS that Rick helped establish?

    in reply to: QE HOLIDAY THOUGHTS. HOW JOLLY. #18130

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Thanks, Clive and R, for adding to the QE discussion. QE merits the full attention of us all. After all, QE is the bailing wire that’s holding the US mkts and economy, and maybe even the world’s mkts and economy, together. My guess: In 2014 the strength of that wire will be tested. The wire is not going anywhere b/c the Fed can’t afford to remove it, but will it break? . . . or at least begin to fray. So far, world stk mkts indicate a bit of stress at the seams. Let’s keep our eyes on every possible mkt and econ indicator, and by the way, is there any law that says a Family Office can’t benefit from the occasional well placed short position? 😉 Regards, HRE II

    in reply to: QE HOLIDAY THOUGHTS. HOW JOLLY. #27116

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    A quick summary-addendum related to my Holiday QE Post:

    Given that we’ve shown how QE drives up asset prices, would it not be wise now to focus upon:

    1. What factors could cause the QE mechanism-process to break down,

    2. How long it might take the mechanism-process to break down,

    3. The “tells” or signs of when the QE mechanism-process is breaking down,

    4. If it breaks down, what will be the Fed and Govt responses, and will these responses be effective?

    Let’s not kid ourselves: If QE breaks down, the emerging market assets in our model portfolio would also drop–perhaps severely. Perhaps these assets are already dropping b/c of global QE mistrust. Further, our Gold and real estate allocations could also be hit, as they were in 08.

    in reply to: Is QE Just A Welfare Plan? #18118

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Thanks, Sunil. I read your reply once and will read it again. This is just the kind of detailed inside info all members need to really put the QE puzzle pieces together. It’s all a kind of monetary shell game, is it not? 😉

    The details on the table, it also seems to me that there is a larger issue that underlies the entire game, namely, how to allocate resources in a new era of automation, computerization, and overabundant labor. If we are approaching a time when machines (and cheap emerging mkt labor) do more and more of what developed nation people once did, then how can a newly idle population stake a claim to the goods these machines produce? Creating tech and real estate bubbles hasn’t worked; so what is next? Will printing money and doling it out via fiscal policy work any better? I was pondering this question as far back as 1981 when a Professor of Public Policy raised it in class one day. He predicted that his own job would become obsolete some day b/c of video technology. Well, what do we now witness? . . . Online universities and training courses.

    in reply to: Introducing New Members-Only Meetings #27106

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Dallas is a good idea, but Austin would be even better. Not quite as large but it’s a city big on Texas charm, BBQ, Bluebell ice cream, and Shiner beer. 😉

    Another ideal place is Destin, Florida, a terrific beach-side resort town, with sandy white beaches and the best fresh gulf seafood on the planet. Sandestin resort is an option for accommodations, but there are many others. See http://www.cityofdestin.com/ and

    http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=destin+florida&qpvt=destin+florida&FORM=IGRE along with

    http://www.sandestin.com/

    HRE II

    in reply to: Is the Chinese property bubble real? #18046

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Let’s just remember the basics of history: Central Planning has never worked. Nothing has changed to justify a belief that it will work. “Downsized versions” of it are now failing in Europe & the States; hence, why should a “steroid charged” version of it work in China?

    Moreover, those who run it will not admit it has failed, until it has COMPLETELY failed, and they are driven out of power.

    in reply to: Chasing Beta…are annuities a better solution? #27024

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    John, I’ve thought a bit along these lines, but more relevant to whole life. A suggestion: Be certain to purchase annuities from ONLY the strongest providers AND diversify your purchases acrosss 3 or more of the top 5. To find the strongest players in the annuity mkt, try http://www.weissratings.com. Hense II

    in reply to: Tree Farming #27268

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Yes, and my opinion is that the inflation hedge chase is just gettin’ started. Buying timberland now is not that different than buying gold, except. that, with timberland, one at least receives an income from wood production and hunting leases. The last time timberland prices really went north was during the 70’s, which, not coincidentally, was the last time gold prices really went north. As of this week, I am hearing $1400-1500 per acre for the raw dirt, with timber value added atop that. If the housing mkt REALLY has bottomed out, lumber prices should continue to recover from their long term low in the low $200’s per 1,000 board feet. Paper wood prices have already recovered. There are worse places to place one’s cash, but, as always, timberland should only be part of a diversified asset portfolio.

    in reply to: Tree Farming #27265

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Doug, My family has been growing timber in Alabama for 100 years or more. Feel free to call me at 334-227-8814 or 334-549-3408 to discuss in detail. My contacts are reporting that prices have bottomed, are heading north again, and that cash buyer interest is quickly building. Thanks, Member Hense R. Ellis II

    in reply to: Is China Really a Post-Capital Economy? #27255

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    Still, let’s not forget that, as Shakepeare said: “Love knoweth not rank nor river bank.” Similarly, the free market knoweth not language, cuisine, or culture, and it tends to ignore whether the Pacific Ocean laps up against a nation’s west coast or its east, or whether its governing elites are educated in Boston or Beijeng. The market, be it of the micro or macro variety, is a natural phenom that, when subjected to unnatural manipulation, reacts in a natural manner do to reinstate the natural order of things. This go round, before it has finished reacting, it may inspire the replacement of elites around the globe.

    in reply to: Is China Really a Post-Capital Economy? #27253

    HENSE E.
    Participant

    My thinking is that China is not immune from the forces of the free market. To think otherwise would be to suggest that China is also immune from the forces of Mother Nature. And, as with anyone who interferes with the free mkt, China will utlimately pay a price, just as the US is still paying a price for subsidizing the housing and lending markets. (After all, it is not nice to fool with Mother Nature. She might take offense.) A corrolary would be that the more one interferes, the higher price one must pay. Just as in the States, Chinese politicos are paranoid about losing power; and likely Chinese officials are even more paranoid b/c their removal might be a bit more, um, physical than the removal via ballot box employed in the States. Also Note: Govts arguably check candidates for paranoi before they take office, and, any applicant who is not paranoid is promptly made so. 😉 Hence, in China, the temptation to interfere and the amount of interference may be greater than anywhere. Finally, if Chinese leaders have interfered the most, then we can expect China to pay the highest price of all. The more one fools with Mother Nature, the more offended she is apt to become.


    HENSE E.
    Participant

    I’m just worried that it will not arrive in Ireland on time. I’ll give it a try if no one Stateside wants to help out. Thanks, HRE II

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)